Category: Rate Update

Higher oil prices threaten mortgage rates

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

President Woodrow Wilson proclaimed the first Mother’s Day holiday this week in 1914.  For the past 104 years we have celebrated those special women in our society who desperately need a break yet do not want to miss a single minute.  Thank you moms!

Mortgage Rates  

Interest rates improved modestly last week but not enough to get excited about.  For most applicants their note rate is unchanged but the accompanying closing costs are lower.

Oil prices

Oil prices have been on the rise which does not bode well for mortgage rates.  In the past month they have increased by 10% reaching the highest levels since 2014.  

When oil prices rise it tends to cause inflationary pressure in the economy.  Inflation is the primary driver of long-term interest rates.  

The Week Ahead

Speaking of inflation we’ll get the latest reading on the Producer Price Index this Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.  If those reports come in hotter than expected I would expect rates to worsen.

Also on Wednesday the US Treasury is scheduled to auction $25 billion of 10-year treasury notes.  The added supply could make it hard for mortgage rates to improve for the second week in a row.  

From a technical perspective the yield on the US 10-year treasury note is currently at ~2.95%.  Fortunately the 3.00% level has acted as resistance so if we test that level again I am hopeful it will hold.  

Outlook

I am less optimistic than I was last week but still feel like rates will not move meaningfully higher in the near-term.  I will shift to a neutral position.

Current Outlook: neutral

US 10-year below 3.00%, might rates improve this week?

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Monday mornings don’t seem like the ideal day for a bloody mary but I would be lying if I said the thought hadn’t crossed my mind.  Speaking of “Bloody Mary Mornings” today is Willie Nelson’s 85th birthday.  HERE IS A LINK to his famous song.

In an upward trending rate environment it feels like a win when I can report that mortgage rates did not increase last week.  They also didn’t go down.

10-year treasury below 3.00%

After spending most of last week above 3.00% the US 10-year treasury note is currently trading at 2.94%.  I am hopeful that the 3.00% level will act as a strong technical ceiling.  If so, we may see mortgage rates improve by .125% or so.

Inflation

Higher prices are the primary driver of mortgage rates.  That is because when inflation rises it reduces the purchasing power of dollars used to repay debt.  Therefore, when inflation rises lenders charge higher rates of interest to compensate.

Earlier today the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, called the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE), was released.  It showed that on a year-over-year basis prices rose by 2.00% which is the Fed’s target.  This was moderately below expectations.

However, if we strip out volatile food and energy prices the “core” PCE increased by 1.9% which is an increase from last month when prices rose by 1.6%.  The large increase is alarming and may be a signal of higher inflation in the future (and thereby higher home loan rates).

The Week Ahead

On Tuesday the latest version of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released.  We’ll also see new home sales and consumer confidence data.

On Friday we’ll get the all-important jobs report and gross domestic product.  That will be a big day for interest rates.

I am cautiously optimistic that rates could improve assuming the yield on the US 10-year treasury note remains below 3.00%.

Current Outlook: cautiously floating.

Flattening yield curve projects higher rates on horizon

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Did you miss me?  The company I work for has gone through a transition (more to come on that at a later date) and there were some regulatory hurdles I had to cross before I could send this update again.  I am still open for business.

Interest Rates

Since Patrick Reed won the Masters home loan rates have worsened.  In fact, mortgage rates are presently at the highest levels in over four years.  

A look at the chart for the US 10-year treasury yield shows that we have to go back to January of 2014 to find a time when interest rates were as high as they currently are.

Yield Curve Flattening

Longer term interest rates are not the only section of the yield curve that are rising.  If you have a Home Equity Line of Credit or balance outstanding on a credit card then you also know rates have been rising on the short-end of the yield curve.  In fact, the short-end of the yield curve is rising faster which is why the yield curve is flattening.

Dating back to 1975 everytime the yield curve has completely flattened a recession has occurred.  Given the economy seems to be chugging along nicely I don’t believe we’ll see a recession in the near-term.  Therefore, I think the longer end of the yield curve will rise. Translation: I believe mortgage rates are poised to increase as the year goes on.

The Week Ahead

There are a lot of significant economic reports due out this week that can influence the direction of mortgage rates.  

Earlier today the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales were stronger than expected.  A lack of inventory continues to be a challenge in the housing market and therefore median home prices continue to rise.  

We will learn more about home prices rising on Tuesday when the latest Case-Shiller home price index is reported.  Also on Tuesday is consumer confidence and new home sales.

At the tail end of the week we’ll get readings on durable goods, gross domestic product, and the employment cost index.

Current Outlook: locking bias

Rates end Q1 on a positive note but higher rates likely later in the year

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

At the end of her life my wife has already decided to be buried at the golf course so that I visit her multiple times per week.  It’s’ Masters week which means my productivity at work will decline significantly starting Thursday.

Quarterly Report

Interest rates had a tough start to the year increasing by approximately .50% during the first seven weeks.  Peaking on February 21st mortgage rates have since flattened and even improved modestly.

For the quarter mortgage rates increased by about .375%.

Yield Curve

The yield curve is at the flattest point since 2007.  The yield curve measures interest rates over a variety of durations.  The chart below depicts the difference between the yield on the 2-year and 10-year treasury notes.  As the difference declines the yield curve gets flatter.

A flat yield curve is thought to forecast either an economic slowdown or higher long-term interest rates in the future.  Given that the economy appears to be stable I think we are in for higher mortgage rates later in the year.

US Stocks

Home loan rates are currently benefiting from volatility in the US stock market.  Equities are off ~2% again today as investors fret over the possibility of trade wars with China and regulatory backlash on tech companies.  When stocks do poorly interest rates tend to benefit.

The Week Ahead

It’s the first week of a new month so we’ll get the all-important jobs report this Friday.  Analysts are most interested in average hourly earnings which has remained sluggish despite low unemployment.  A higher reading for hourly earnings would be unfriendly to mortgage rates. The remainder of the economic calendar is light.

Mortgage rates are presently at the lower end of their recent range so I will recommend locking.

Current Outlook: locking

Stocks slide and mortgage rates hang steady

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

If you’re like me then your NCAA men’s basketball bracket is officially busted.  With two #1 seeds eliminated in the first weekend I will now focus my sporting attention on the upcoming Masters golf tournament.  Speaking of golf, do you know why Virginia and Xavier fans only plan 14 holes? They can’t make it to the final four.

US stocks slide

US stocks fell by approximately 1% last week and are down sharply again today on news that data from Facebook may have been breached in 2016 and improperly used by a third party vendor in the presidential election.  Facebook shares are bringing down the broader market.

When stocks decline it typically helps interest rates improve.  Thus far mortgage rates are basically unchanged.

The Fed

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet Tuesday-Wednesday with a monetary policy statement slated for Wednesday.  The markets fully expect the Fed to hike short-term interest rates by .25%.  This is already baked into the mortgage rate offerings you see today.

What can cause interest rates to move are the comments that accompany the rate hike announcement.  Will the Fed move more aggressively to hike rates in lieu of recent fiscal stimulus? Or given that recent inflation and wage growth data has been tepid will they stay the course with a “gradual” approach?

Don’t be alarmed when you hear Wednesday afternoon that the Fed is hiking rates by +.25%.  It does not necessarily mean that mortgage rates will follow suit.

The rest of the week

Aside from the highly anticipated Fed meeting I will be watching for the FHFA home price index report due out on Thursday and durable goods along with new home sales on Friday.

From a technical standpoint the yield on the US 10-year treasury note remains below 2.91%.  As long as this is the case rates should remain near current levels.

Current Outlook: floating

Home Loan Rates stable….for now

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

With today being the first Monday after daylight savings I think we can all agree this is the “Mondayest” Monday of the year.

Mortgage rates stable?

Mortgage rates fared ‘OK’ last week.  For the most part home loan rates were unchanged despite US stock indexes moving higher.  Normally interest rates worsen when stocks do well.

Don’t look now but mortgage rates have traded within a .125% range since mid-February.

Jobs report

Last Friday’s all-important jobs report showed much stronger employment growth than was expected.  However, wage growth actually slowed modestly which is probably why mortgage rates didn’t move higher on the news.  Higher wages can lead to inflation which is the nemesis of mortgage rates.

Rates getting squeezed

The technical outlook for interest rates has me concerned that we may experience a “breakout”.  The yield on the US 10-year treasury note is trading in a tight range between technical support and resistance.  When this happens we sometimes see yields sharply bounce outside of the compressed range.

The week ahead

This week’s economic calendar features a variety of reports that can drive interest rates. Later today the US Treasury will auction off $21 billion in US 10-year treasury notes.  If demand weakens for this asset it would likely pressure home loan rates higher.

On Tuesday we’ll get the latest reading of the Consumer Price Index, on Wednesday Retail Sales, and on Thursday the Producer Price Index.

The safe play is to lock and avoid any possible breakout.

Current Outlook: locking bias

Mortgage rates will react to tariff sentiment

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Congratulations to “The Shape of Water” for winning big at the Academy Awards last night.  I haven’t seen the movie but isn’t the shape of water simply the shape of its container?

Mortgage rates

Mortgage rates oscillated last week but are mostly unchanged from last Monday.  Fortunately the yield on the US 10-year treasury note remains below 2.91% which remains a critical technical level and one we’ll continue to monitor.

Tariffs and inflation

Last week President Trump announced proposed tariffs which would protect US steel manufacturers.  Higher prices for steel will likely pressure inflation higher and as we know inflation is the primary driver of mortgage rates.

As sentiment shifts around this issue I expect interest rates to react.  If it looks more likely that tariffs will be imposed mortgage rates will worsen and vice versa.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (and inflation)

This Friday we’ll get the all-important jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The markets are expecting +200,000 new jobs but lately interest rates have reacted more to the average hourly earnings number than to jobs.  Since the labor market is tight economists are watching wages to determine if companies will have to pay more in labor costs which can lead to wage-based inflation.

The remainder of the economic calendar is fairly light.

As long as the US 10-year treasury notes remains at or below 2.91% I will continue to float.

Current Outlook: cautiously floating

A busy week for housing, for home loan rates 2.91% is key

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

One of my favorite days of the year took place on Saturday when Berkshire-Hathaway released its annual shareholder letter.  If you have never partaken in Warren Buffett’s simple, humorous, and sage advice I encourage you to dive in HERE.  Have kids?  This is all the financial education you need to give them.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates held steady last week and even improved modestly for 30-year fixed rate amortizations.  I had written about the significance of the US 10-year treasury note yielding 2.91%.  Fortunately that technical level did hold and today it is trading at 2.86%.  As long as it trades below 2.91% I expect mortgage rates to hold steady (and possibly improve?).

Housing Data

This week’s economic calendar will tell us a lot about housing.  Earlier today new home sales were reported below economists’ expectations.  However, they are coming off record highs reported in November of 2017.

On Tuesday we’ll see the most current home price index reports from Case-Shiller and the FHFA.  On Wednesday the National Association of Realtors will release the latest pending home sale report.

The Fed

New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address lawmakers on Capitol Hill for the first time on Tuesday and Thursday.  Larger projected government spending deficits have increased speculation that inflation pressures will rise.  Inflation is the primary driver of home loan rates so we will be listening closely to his comments.

The Outlook

As long as the yield on the US 10-year treasury note remains at or below 2.91% I feel comfortable floating.  However, longer-term trends are still concerning so my advice is use caution this week.

Current Outlook: cautiously floating

While snow falls mortgage rates rise

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

I didn’t expect to see this much snow falling when I got up this morning.  Now I am just waiting for a tweet from the President accusing the National Weather Service of failing to predict this storm because they were too focused on the Russia investigation.

Do you know what isn’t falling?  Interest rates.  Mortgage rates rose another +.125% last week.  Might we finally get some reprieve and see rates stabilize or remove lower?  The answer to this question will largely depend on the US 10-year treasury note.

Mortgage rates tend to track changes in yield on the US 10-year treasury note.  For example since the beginning of the year the yield on the 10-year treasury note has increased by +.50% and mortgage rates have increased by about the same.

The US 10-year treasury note is currently trading very close to 2.91%.  It has traded very near this level since last Monday but has not managed to break through.  Assuming this technical layer of resistance can hold I would expect mortgage rates to remain at current levels.

If the yield on the US 10-year treasury note breaks above the 2.91% level  I expect mortgage rates to worsen by another .125%.

This week’s economic calendar features bond auctions from the US government.  As I have written about (HERE) we are beginning to see the supply of treasury auctions increase which will make it harder for mortgage rates to improve.

I will remain in a locking position.

Current Outlook: locking

Despite stock market losses home loan rates rose last week

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

The winter Olympics are fully underway in South Korea and I find it inspiring to watch all the athletes who have trained tirelessly for the past four years to compete for gold.  My idea of training?  I named my dog six miles so I could tell people that ‘I walked six miles today’.

Typically when stocks perform poorly interest rates benefit.  Last week the US stock market lost ~5% of its value yet interest rates continued to march higher.  Why?

S & D

I wrote about the topic last week and I am going to harp on it again.  One of the primary factors pressuring interest rates higher is supply and demand.

The supply of US Treasury notes is expected to increase following passage of the tax reform bill and the latest two-year federal budget.  Both create substantial deficit spending which will have to be financed with a greater supply of US debt.

Meanwhile, demand for US Treasury securities is expected to decline as central banks around the world cut back on quantitative easing measures which are a legacy of the great recession.

An increase in supply met with a decrease in demand drives prices lower which in turn pressures yields higher.

Four-year highs

The average rate for a conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now at the highest level since 2014.  15-year fixed rate loans are at the highest level in over five years.

Since September mortgage rates have increased by over .50%.  A .50% increase to interest rates has the same impact on mortgage payments as home appreciation of 6%.  In other words, even without appreciation homes “feel” more expensive for buyers.

Interestingly, according to a recent survey only 6% of respondents said they would cancel their plans to buy a home if mortgage rates surpassed 5%.

The week ahead

The meat of this week’s economic calendar kicks off Wednesday with retail sales and the Consumer Price Index.  On Thursday we’ll get industrial production and the homebuilders’ index.  On Friday we’ll see housing starts and consumer sentiment.

The technical outlook is mixed.  Interest rates are currently trading at important technical levels that could help them reverse and move lower.  However, recent momentum is too much for me to ignore so I will maintain the locking position we;ve held for the past month.

Current Outlook: locking