Category: Swanson Home Loans Blog – Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Home loan rates improve modestly along with home values

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

As a father of two I wish Halloween fell on the weekend.  Ever wonder why it is celebrated on October 31st? You can find out HERE.

Interest rates

After hitting recent highs back on October 9th mortgage rates have improved very modestly.  Weakness in the stock market is likely the cause for the improvement in interest rates.

US stock markets have declined 10% from recent highs.  When stocks weaken it often encourages investors to re-position capital in the bond market which drives yields lower.

Housing

The Case-Shiller home price index was released today.  The report showed that Portland home prices increased by 5.4% from last year.  However, compared to the month before home prices were off by .1%.  

Although home prices here in Portland continue to increase (as measured year-over-year) they are doing so at a slower rate.  The +5.4% increase is the slowest rate of appreciation since 2012 and the Portland market now lags the national 20-city composite index which increased by +5.8%.

Seller Buydown strategy

Please take a moment to watch the video below which is a creative strategy to help bridge the gap between sellers’ willingness to make concessions in the current market and buyers who feel pinched by affordability pressures.

The Week Ahead

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its all-important monthly jobs report this Friday.  The markets are currently expecting +202,000 new jobs.  I won’t be surprised if the actual numbers miss expectations given the volatile weather in the southeast.  

 

Current Outlook: floating bias

Stock market weakness helps mortgage rates

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Think Portland has grown?  According to Wikipedia there are currently 647,805 residents inside the city limits.  

Comparatively, there are 102 cities in China with a population of 1 million or more.  Shanghai is the largest with 22 million people. The US currently has 10 cities with a population of 1 million or more.  

US Stock Market

Concern over the health of the Chinese economy and stalled trade talks contributed to sharp losses in the US stock market last week.  In fact, last week’s slump marked the biggest one week decline since February.

Mortgage Rates

When stocks do poorly it encourages investors to sell equity holdings and reinvest the proceeds into the bond market.  That additional demand for bonds is what drives yields lower. As a result, home loan rates tend to benefit when stocks sell off.  

Although mortgage note rates have not declined they have at least stalled which is a win compared to the sharp increases we saw during the first week of October.

What’s next?

Should stocks continue to sell off I would expect home loan rates to improve modestly.  However, if stocks gain footing and recover last week’s losses then it will put further pressure on mortgage rates to move higher.

According to the Case-Shiller price-to-earnings ratio the US stock market us currently trading at 31 times annual earnings.  

Dating back over 100 years there have only been two times when this metric has been above 30, 1929 and 1999.  In my view US stocks are still expensive which leads me to believe that values will correct at some point in the future which should help US interest rates.

The tricky part is forecasting when.

Current Outlook: floating bias

What goes up……might come down?

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

If you are a believer in the proverb “what goes up must come down” then last week doesn’t hurt so bad.

Home Loan Rates

Mortgage rates suffered the biggest increase in one week since the presidential election in November 2016.  Interest rates rose by +.25% last week.

Affordability

It seems obvious that as the cost of borrowing increases affordability of homes worsens.  But how much? For every 1% increase to interest rates purchasing power decreases by 12% for homebuyers.  

Therefore, homes got 3% more expensive in five short days.

Wages

The good news and bad news is that average hourly wages are increasing in the US.  Over the past year American workers have seen their pay increase by 2.9%.  That is good news because it allows households to afford higher mortgage payments but bad news because it helps contribute to higher interest rates via wage-based inflation.

Why are rates rising?

One of the primary reasons why we’re seeing mortgage rates rise is because the Fed is no longer supporting them.  I explained this concept back in February (HERE).  For years the Fed had been purchasing mortgage-backed securities via quantitative easing.  Instead of stopping the support immediately they gradually tapered their activity.

As recently as September they had been reinvesting some of their capital into the mortgage-backed securities market.  Starting on October 1st that activity has ceased and as a result interest rates have risen in order to attract capital from other places.

The week ahead

The economic calendar is relatively light this week.  There are three Fed officials speaking today.  Tomorrow we’ll see the producer price index and on Thursday we’ll get the consumer price index.  Since mortgage rates increased so sharply last week I am going to recommend floating this week in the hopes that what goes up must come down.  

Current Outlook: floating bias

Home prices increase at a decreasing rate, mortgage rates modestly better

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

“In the book of life, the answers aren’t in the back.”-Charlie Brown  

On this day in 1950 the Peanuts comic-strip made its debut in newspapers.  

Italy

Lawmakers in Italy are looking for answers to their financial problems.  Earlier today a prominent Italian politician publicly remarked that Italy could solve many of its issues if it abandoned the euro and reverted to its own currency.  

His remarks have created some financial uncertainty which is helping US mortgage rates improve modestly.

Home Prices

What’s happening in the housing market?  

In the past week we’ve gotten the latest readings on nationwide home prices from the FHFA Home Price Index, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and (this morning) the Corelogic Home Price Insights report.

Although each of these reports have different methodologies for calculating changes in home prices they all share similar results.  They each showed that home prices increased by 5.5%-6.4% over the past 12 months. Home prices continue to increase but at a decelerating rate (not to be confused with decreasing home prices).    

Corelogic projects that home price appreciation will continue to soften.  They predict home prices will increase by 4.7% in the next 12 months. By coincidence, 12 months ago they also predicted home prices would increase by 4.7% which turned out to be an underestimation.

Oil Prices

The media loves to focus on the Federal Reserve and the Federal Funds rate when trying to predict the future of home loan rates.  However, we know the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates.

I think they should play closer attention to oil prices.  Oil prices have increased by ~30% in 2018 and we know home loan rates have increased as well.  Energy prices are highly inflationary because they impact virtually every sector of the economy and inflation is the primary driver of mortgage rates.

The Week Ahead

The main economic event on the calendar for this week is the all-important jobs report due out Friday. I will remain in a floating bias but feel less confident than I did last week.

Current Outlook: floating bias

Mortgage rates hold steady, might the Fed help home loan rates improve?

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

“Jenny Don’t Change Your Number!”- Today is National One-Hit-Wonder Day.  What is your favorite hit?

 Mortgage Rates

After consecutive weeks of moving higher the good news is that mortgage rates did not change last week.  Home loan rates continue to hover around the highest levels of the past seven years.

The Fed

As I noted in last week’s update the Fed is meeting today and tomorrow and is expected to announce a +.25% hike to the Federal Funds rate.  Although many media outlets will use the announcement to forecast higher mortgage rates readers of this blog know that the Fed does not directly influence home loan rates (don’t believe me?  See HERE).  

In fact, I can see a scenario where tomorrow’s announcement could be a catalyst for mortgage rates to reverse lower.

Inflation Medicine

We know that inflationary pressure is the primary nemesis of mortgage rates.  This is because when lenders believe the purchasing power of money lent will decline, via inflation, they will charge higher rates of interest to compensate.  

The reason the Fed hikes rates is to curb inflationary pressure.  Therefore, I will be listening to the comments which accompany the rate hike announcement on Wednesday to hear if they feel like inflationary pressure is building or expected to ease (hopefully the latter).

The Week Ahead

On Thursday we’ll see fresh reports on pending home sales and durable goods orders.  On Friday the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation will be released (personal consumption expenditure price index).

I am shifting to a floating bias.

Current Outlook: floating bias

Mortgage rates cycle to 7-year highs

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Happy Birthday to Lance Armstrong who is celebrating the start of his 48th trip around the sun.  Many people believe Lance is the greatest abuser of performance enhancing drugs in cycling history but I’m not sure.  I think Elliott from the movie ET has some answering to do.

Mortgage Rates

Home loan rates have been cycling higher since the end of August.  Mortgage rates have now increased by +.25% and are at 7-year highs.  

Trade Wars

Earlier today President Trump announced the US would be imposing tariffs on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.  The Chinese government wasted no time in announcing counter tariffs on roughly $60 billion of US exports.  

Normally I would expect these announcements to potentially help US interest rates because it would be a bad sign for the stock market.  However, the US stock market is trading higher today and US interest rates are suffering.

More Contradictions

Last week it was reported that average hourly earnings increased by 2.9% for American workers.  This was hotter than expected and stoked fears of wage-based inflation which is not friendly to home loan rates.  However, in a separate report the Consumer Price Index was reported to have only increased by 2.2% which is very close to the Fed’s target.

The Fed

Speaking of the Fed they will be meeting next week and announcing a +.25% hike to short-term interest rates on Wednesday.  The Fed does not directly influence home loan rates (don’t believe me? See HERE).  Furthermore, we already know the Fed will be hiking rates and that news is built into the mortgage rates available today.

The Week Ahead

This week’s economic calendar is heavy on housing date with housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales due out.  

I am hopeful that mortgage rates reverse lower but for now momentum is not on our side.  I will remain in a locking stance.

Current Outlook: locking

Mortgage rates continue to trend higher

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Today marks the 17th anniversary of the horrible 9/11 attacks.  Virtually every US citizen’s life were altered that day. If you’ve never heard the incredible and inspiring story of Welles Crowther (AKA “the man in the red bandana”) I encourage you to take a moment to watch THIS today.

 Mortgage Rates

Last week I recommended locking and that proved to be the right call.  

Since the end of April conventional 30-year fixed rates have traded within a range of 4.625%-4.875%.  As recently as August 24th mortgage rates were available at the lower end of that range but as of today we are at the top end.  

The last few times mortgage rates have hit these levels they have reversed lower.  I am not confident that pattern will repeat itself this time.

The Fed

The Fed is scheduled to meet in two weeks and according to CME Group there is currently a 98% chance they hike rates by +.25%.  It is basically a certainty.

Yield Curve

As of today there is a .22% difference between the yield on the US 10-year treasury note and the 2-year treasury note.  After the Fed hikes rates in two weeks we could see the yields on par which means we’d have a flat yield curve.

If this happens I would either expect an economic recession in the next 12-24 months or  longer-term interest rates to increase (including for mortgages).

On a side note the flattening of the yield curve is also reducing the difference between 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages.  There is currently only a .25% advantage for 15-year amortizing loans.

The Week Ahead

There are a number of Fed officials speaking this week and their comments can always influence the markets.  On Thursday we’ll get the latest Consumer Price Index report and on Friday we get the latest reading for Retail Sales.

Momentum is not on our side.  I think mortgage rates will worsen by another .125% before stabilizing.  I will maintain a locking bias.

Current Outlook: locking

Rates modestly worse, home prices projected to increase at a decreasing rate

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

On this day in 1998 two graduate students from Stanford University incorporated their business which was named after the mathematical term for 10 to the 100th power (“1” followed by 100 zeros).

Had you invested $100 in their internet search engine business on that day your initial investment would be worth over $41 million today (91% annualized return).  Don’t believe me? Google it.

Housing

Although investing in a home is not as profitable as being an early investor in a business like Google it can still be fruitful.  

Corelogic released it’s monthly Home Price Insights report earlier today.  The report showed that nationwide home prices increased by 6.2% on average in the past year.  It went on to forecast that home prices will increase by 5.1% in the next year.

It’s important that consumers understand that although the pace of price appreciation is projected to decline home prices are still increasing.  If a consumer put 5% down and purchased a home today and the home appreciated by 5% in the next year their cash on cash return (on paper) would be 100%.  

Mortgage Rates

Last week I recommended a locking bias.  Pricing on mortgage rates indeed worsened modestly.  Interest rates are currently in the middle of the range they have established dating back to the beginning of the summer (30yr fixed: 4.625%-4.875%).  

Technical Trading Patterns

Momentum appears to be working against us but mortgage-backed bond prices and the yield on the US 10-year treasury are trading up against technical barriers.  If yields can bounce lower we may see rates improve by .125%.  However, if yields blow through these levels then expect +.125% higher rates by the end of the week.

The Week Ahead

There are a number of significant economic reports due out this week but none more important than the all important jobs report on Friday.  US-Canada trade talks are scheduled to resume on Wednesday.  If talks indicate a free trade agreement on the horizon I expect US stocks to rise which will hurt mortgage rates.

Current Outlook: locking

Things to know about purchasing a condominium

Posted on by Evan in Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Hey, guys. Evan Swanson, Swanson Home Loans of Cherry Creek Mortgage here to talk to you today about the differences between applying for a loan to buy a condominium and a traditional detached single-family residence.

Why are there differences?

Well, understand, as a lender, we always must evaluate the collateral for the loan. When a person buys a condominium, they are buying into a small democracy.  The homeowner’s association, which is charged with the responsibility of maintaining the common areas, which is often the structure in which the condominium is located.  Not only do we have to take a borrower through the traditional steps to evaluate their finances, but we also have a separate underwriter look at the condominium itself to make sure the condominium is governed well and has the financial resources to maintain the property over time.

Loan programs

With regards to specific loan programs, what is there to look out for? If you’re using FHA or VA financing, there is a separate approval process that the HOA must go through and that project will be listed on those websites to determine if they are eligible or not. If the property is not eligible, chances are you’re not going to be able to use those types of financing to buy a condo there.

For FHA: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm

For VA: https://vip.vba.va.gov/portal/VBAH/VBAHome/condopudsearch

A couple other things for conventional and jumbo loans that an underwriter will likely want to look at:

Occupancy

The underwriter might want to measure as a percentage of all the units in the homeowner’s association what percentage are owner-occupied and what percentage are non-owner-occupied.  Lenders like to see more owner-occupied because, in general, those owners will vote for assessments and maintenance investments that will help maintain the building over time.

HOA

Is the HOA currently in any form of legal litigation? If so, litigation has to be complete before a loan can fund, typically. Is the HOA under any major, significant construction? If so, oftentimes the construction has to be completed before a loan can fund.

The underwriter may also want to see if there is a concentration of ownership to a single person or entity? There can be limitations on how much a single entity can own of the entire project.

Residential vs. retail space

And then lastly, does the condo have retail space? Is it a mixed use? If so, there’s limitations on how much of the overall square footage can be allocated to retail and residential square footage.

The bottom line is there’s another set of rules that lenders must follow when helping guide a customer through a condominium purchase.

If you’re thinking about buying a condominium, make sure you’re working with a lender that understands those rules. Of course, if you’re looking for a lender, we would love to be a resource, so contact us today. Talk to you soon. Thank you.

Home Loan Rates modestly worse, Portland home prices entering “Goldilocks” range

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

A recent survey by the national maritime association revealed that 3.14% of sailors are pi-rates.  Why do I share this important statistic with you? Just because yesterday was national Just Because Day.   

Mortgage Rates

Although mortgage note rates are unchanged from last week the accompanying closing costs are modestly worse.

US 10-year Treasury

As I highlighted in last week’s ‘rate update’ the US 10-year treasury note had hit a multi-month low at 2.81%.  Although we were hopeful the yield may dip below this level and drag home loan rates lower it didn’t happen.

The US 10-year treasury yield responded the same way it has since the beginning of June which is higher.  As a result mortgage rates are priced modestly worse than last week.

US Stocks

The equity markets are responding warmly to news that the Trump Administration is close to revised trade agreements with Mexico and Canada.  Good news for stocks is often bad news for US interest rates.

Housing

The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index report was released earlier today.  According to the data in the report home prices in Portland increased by 5.8% year-over-year ending in June.  

It’s important that consumers understand that the pace of home price gains is declining but home prices are still increasing.  I would argue we’re entering “Goldilocks” territory where the market is not too hot or too cold.  

Technical Trading Patterns

Given that rates are trending modestly higher I think it makes sense to lock now instead of waiting.  

Current Outlook: locking