Tag: Mortgage Rates Portland

Mortgage Rate Update May 16, 2016

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Mortgage rates remain near 3-year lows making it a great time to lock in a rate on a new home purchase or refinance.

Given that financial markets tend to operate in a cyclical manner I am currently recommending that customers lock their rate since they have trended lower over the past couple weeks (and therefore may “cycle” higher in the next couple weeks).

That said, many of the major banks have been revising their year end forecast for interest rates lower.  Last week Goldman Sachs lowered their expected yield on the US 10-year treasury yield following similar moves by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.  Of course, if the banks knew for certain then there would be no need to revise so take this news for what it’s worth.

Recently, many of the major banks have peered into their crystal balls and revised their interest rate forecasts lower.
Recently, many of the major banks have peered into their crystal balls and revised their interest rate forecasts lower.

The economic calendar for this week is relatively short but there are some important releases.  Tomorrow the Labor Department will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  Inflation is the nemesis of mortgage rates and lately the year-over-year CPI figure has been creeping higher.  If this trend continues I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates tick higher.

On Wednesday the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting will be released.  Any additional information on the Fed plans certainly have the ability to move the markets.

I am going to recommend a locking bias simply because interest rates are extremely attractive levels.

Current Outlook: locking

Mortgage Rate Update February 25, 2016

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Mortgage rates are similar or slightly better compared to Monday.

China’s stock market plunged for the second time this year.  The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.4% today as investors showed concern for the state of the Chinese economy.  The volatility in China has redirected capital into the US debt markets which helps rates move lower (click HERE to learn how).

In case you missed it Portland led the country in year-over-year home price appreciation according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index report that was released on Tuesday.  According to the report home prices rose by 11.4% from December 2014 to December 2015.  Some onlookers have begun to ask if a bubble is forming here in Portland.  Click HERE to see why we’re not there…..but not ruling it out in the future.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index- Portland, OR
Case-Shiller Home Price Index- Portland, OR

In other housing data, the National Association of Realtors NAR released monthly data on existing home sales.  Nationally home sales increased to a 6 month high.  However, the number of home sales actually decreased in the West Region from December to January (still higher on a year-over-year basis).  A lack of supply was blamed.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun commented, “The spring buying season is right around the corner and current supply levels aren’t even close to what’s needed to accommodate the subsequent growth in housing demand.”  You can say that again.

From a technical perspective the outlook looks modestly positive.  I will shift to a floating bias.

Current Outlook: floating bias

Mortgage Rate Update February 18, 2016

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Mortgage rates are unchanged from Monday.  Mortgage rates remain slightly worse as compared to last Wednesday-Thursday.

US stocks started the day higher but have since stalled, which bodes well for interest rates.  Worries over slowing global growth have re-emerged which drives capital into perceived “safe-havens” including the US debt markets and drives our yields lower.

Is the US economy on the brink of an economic slowdown?  The Philadelphia Fed released its monthly barometer for manufacturing and it remained in negative territory which signals continued contraction for manufacturing.  Bad news for the economy tends to be good news for mortgage rates.

Continuous weakness in the manufacturing sector has some investors worried.
Continuous weakness in the manufacturing sector has some investors worried.

Tomorrow we’ll get the latest reading on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  Inflationary pressure remains weak in our economy (exception: housing costs in Portland, OR) and we’ll see if that trend continues. If so, that fact coupled with fears over an economic slowdown will put the Fed on hold in hiking short-term interest rates.  The next Fed monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 15th-16th and the markets think there is a 94% chance the Fed will not hike.

From a technical perspective there is reason to believe that mortgage rates can regain the .125% they lost late last week so I am going to recommend cautiously floating.

Current Outlook: floating