Tag: portland or mortgage broker

Mortgage Rate Update September 8, 2016

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Mortgage rates are continue to tread water.  Essentially mortgage rates have been more or less unchanged for a month.

Speaking of not changing, this morning the European Central Bank (ECB) announced this morning that they would leave their monetary policy stance the same.  The announcement delivered by ECB President Mario Draghi was largely expected.  Here in the US the Fed (ECB equivalent) is scheduled to make a monetary policy statement on September 21st and although the meeting will be much talked about it is still unlikely the Fed will make any changes.

Mortgage Rates continue to tread water.
Mortgage Rates continue to tread water.

There not much on the economic calendar for the remainder of the week so I expect mortgage rates will hold steady through the weekend.

I came across THIS INTERESTING ARTICLE regarding the US economy and the upcoming election.  As you may be aware the current US economic expansion is one of the longest in US history.  Did you know that in all of US history there has never been three consecutive presidential terms without a new recession starting?  Grant it, we all know that economists have predicted 10 out of the last 2 recessions but still this piece does make you wonder how much steam is left in this expansion.

Current Outlook: neutral

Mortgage Rate Update April 25, 2016

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Mortgage rates are unchanged from the second half of last week.  As I wrote about last Thursday mortgage rates increased by ~.125% over the course of last week.

This week’s economic calendar is jam packed with significant releases that could impact mortgage rates.

On Tuesday the latest version of the S&P Case-Shiller home price index is due out.  Portland has led the nation in year-over-year home price appreciation the past couple months and it will be interesting to see if we maintain the top spot.

04-25spcase

The Fed will conduct its regularly scheduled two-day monetary policy meeting Tuesday-Wednesday.  It is not expected that the Fed will raise short-term rates at this meeting but their comments regarding timing for future rate hikes would be an important market mover.  As a reminder the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates.

Later in the week we gets readings on personal consumption expenditures (inflation), personal spending, and consumer sentiment.

From a technical perspective as long as the US 10-year treasury yield is at or below 1.90% we can float in the hopes that it moves lower.  If it moves decisively above this level we need to lock in.

Current Outlook: cautiously floating

Mortgage Rate Update March 7, 2016

Posted on by Evan in Rate Update, Swanson Home Loans Blog - Mortgage Rate Updates and More

Although mortgage note rates are unchanged from last Thursday pricing at these rates slightly worse.

Friday’s jobs report topped analysts’ expectations coming at +242,000 new jobs for the month of February.  Furthermore, as I thought may happen, previously released figures for December and January were reported higher.  As expected, mortgage rates worsened moderately following the better than expected results.

This week’s economic calendar is very light.  The highlight will come on Thursday when Europe’s Central Bank (ECB) meets.  Investors expect the ECB will lower short-term rates even further in an effort to boost liquidity into their economy.  As a reminder, the ECB’s current target rate is in negative territory which means they are actually charging banks to keep money on deposit.  Low rates overseas have helped keep rates low here in the US.

From a technical perspective we are keeping a close eye on the US 10-year treasury yield.  It is currently trading at 1.90% which is ~.20% higher than where we stood a couple weeks ago.  During that time mortgage rates have risen by .125%.

03-07-16-chart of yield mortgage rates portland ore

Should the yield break above this level it will likely creep higher by another ~.20% and we could expect mortgage rates to increase by .125%-.25%.  However, this level could also cause yields to reverse and trend back down.  If that happens I would expect mortgage rates to improve by ~.125%.

It’s a tough call.  I am going to shift my outlook to cautiously floating.

Current Outlook: cautiously floating