Countdown to expiration of the first-time homebuyer credit

The Portland Business Journal kindly reminded me this morning that the $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit is set to expire November 30th.  November 30th is exactly 80 days away from today.  If you figure that most closings are taking about 45 days then that leaves homebuyers 35 days to find a home and reach an agreement with a seller.

There have been rumors regarding an extension of the first-time homebuyer credit but nothing yet has passed congress.  Last I heard there was a proposed bill but it had stalled out in a committee.

Cost of waiting to buy a home

As I’ve told many people the stars are currently aligned for first-time home-buyers.  Grant it, there is a lot of uncertainty and anxiety amongst US workers right now and if the potential for job loss is high it would NOT be a good plan to buy a home.

However, for those who feel secure in their jobs and have been waiting for prices to fall it is a good idea to start getting serious.  After all, mortgage rates for loans requiring only 3% down remain very attractive and I believe homes in Portland have become much more affordable over the past few months.

But if that isn’t enough to convince you consider the cost of waiting.  I actually got this example from a book I recently read entitled “Borrow Smart Retire Rich”.

The table below illustrates the savings an individual will make over a 4 year period assuming they can save $4,000 per year   We’ll assume that their savings earns 8% annually:

Year Value Change
0 $ 4,000.00 n/a
1 $ 8,320.00 $ 320.00
2 $ 12,985.60 $ 985.00
3 $ 18,024.45 $ 2,024.00
4 $ 23,466.40 $ 3,466.00

Conversely, here is a table that illustrates the cost of waiting. Here’s how much a $200,000 home will appreciate over the next 4 years assuming a 4% appreciation rate:

Year Value Change
0 $ 200,000.00 n/a
1 $ 208,000.00 $ 8,000.00
2 $ 216,320.00 $ 16,320.00
3 $ 224,972.80 $ 24,972.00
4 $ 233,971.71 $ 33,971.00

As you can see over a 4 year period even though the individual was able to save $23,466 towards a down payment the home that they could have purchased 4 years ago has now appreciated in value by $33,971.  Therefore, this individual has actually lost $10,000 in waiting this long to buy a home.