You can file this one in the “wish I had reason to celebrate” folder. Today is #NationalPersonalChefDay! Don’t forget to pat your chef on the back and thank them for all their hard work.
Mortgage rates are unchanged this week after increasing by ~.125% last week.
The US economy is currently in the longest economic expansion in modern history. It started back in 2009 and has been in tact for 121 months. Naturally, all good things must come to an end and as this growth pattern grows long in the tooth more and more economists will begin to predict a near-term recession.
Earlier today an index that tracks global freight movement was released and showed seven straight months of contraction. According to the report the US economy is, “signaling economic contraction.”
I am not sure how reliable this indicator is but if the US economy does move towards economic contraction one would think that US mortgage rates would improve.
Earlier today the monthly retail sales report showed stronger than expected consumer activity. Furthermore, an index which gauges homebuilders’ confidence also came in higher than anticipated.
The rest of the week
The remainder of the week features Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking (later today), housing starts/ building permits (Wednesday), and leading economic indicators (Thursday).
In the near term mortgage rates are testing important technical layers. I expect mortgage rates to be at these levels or possibly even higher in the next 3-7 days. Beyond that I think mortgage rates will come back down.
Current Outlook: floating bias