Since I shifted our outlook to ‘floating’ back on November 13th mortgage rates have improved by .125%-.25% and are currently at the best levels of the year. Looking back the pattern of watching mortgage rates decline in the 2nd half of the year is very consistent in recent history. In fact, since 2006 mortgage rates have declined at some point during the 4th quarter each and every year.
In case you haven’t noticed oil prices are currently at 5-year lows. This bodes well for interest rates because energy is a major driver of inflation in our economy. So long as oil prices are low it should ease inflationary pressure which is a primary driver of mortgage rates.
Looking ahead the economic calendar is fairly light this week until we get to Friday when the all-important jobs report is due. We’ll talk strategy for that report on Thursday. For now, we can continue to float.
Current Outlook: floating