As the path of the eclipse trends east and south across the United States interest rates are following a similar path. Below is a graph of the yield on the US 10-year treasury note dating back to the beginning of July.
Over that time the yield on the US 10-year treasury note has improved by ~.20% while mortgage rates have improved by .125%-.25%. I don’t expect this trend to last forever but momentum remains favorable for now.
Should the yield break below and close under 2.18% that would be a very good sign for rates to improve further. However, if 2.18% holds then I think we’ll need to shift to a locking bias.
The economic calendar for this week is relatively light until you get to Thursday-Friday. The Federal Reserve Bank will host its annual symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming starting this Thursday. Both Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak.
Investors are listening for clues as to when the US central bank will begin to unwind its balance sheet and when the European Central Bank will end its version of quantitative easing for the European economy.
I will maintain a floating bias until technical trading patterns shift course.
Current Outlook: floating