Mortgage Rate Update May 11, 2015

Mortgage rates are very similar to the levels we saw on Thursday of last week.  Mortgage rates continued marching higher Monday-Wednesday last week and finally caught a break on Thursday-Friday as we thought might happen.  Unfortunately we are not getting any follow through this morning as yields are trending higher once again.

In case you missed it Friday’s all-important jobs report is being referred to as a “goldilocks” report.  With 223,000 new jobs created in April the labor market is “not too hot” and “not too cold”.  With a neutral result the Fed remains on course to raise short term interest rates but likely not at either of their next two meetings.  The markets currently place a 19% likelihood that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates at the September meeting and 37% for October.

Speaking of the Fed, Janet Yellen commented last week that “Long-term interest rates are at very low levels…we could see a sharp jump in long-term rates when the Fed begins its tightening cycle.”  Have we seen the end of less than 4% 30-year fixed rates?  Time will tell.

The economic calendar is light this week with the highlights coming on Wednesday (Retail Sales) and Thursday (Producer Price Index).

The technical outlook has shifted and has me concerned that rates are poised to move higher so I will shift to a locking bias.

Current Outlook: locking bias