Mortgage rates are unchanged today.
After a day with no economic data we have a full schedule today.
This morning’s holiday retail sales report showed that consumers increased spending this holiday season compared to the past three years by more than expected.
However, this morning’s positive retails sales report conflicts with this morning’s consumer confidence index, courtesy of the Conference Board, which showed that consumers are less optimistic than previously expected.
This morning’s S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index report showed that housing is still in a slump. As of October home prices in the 20 major real estate markets fell from a year earlier by .8%. Locally, home prices in Portland hit the lowest level since the recession began in 2006-2007. This smells like opportunity to me.
The US Government is back on the auction block today with 5-year notes. Yesterday’s 2-year note auction was met with better than expected demand which is good for mortgage rates. Today’s auction features longer duration notes which may not fair as well due to inflation fears.
I will remain in a neutral position this week as thin trading volumes make it difficult to forecast.
Current outlook: neutral