Mortgage Rate Update March 23, 2012

Mortgage rates are priced slightly better this morning compared to yesterday.

It’s a new day but same story as yesterday.  Interest rates are improving very modestly on renewed concerns over foreign economic growth and the European Debt Crisis.

An index of leading economic indicators for the Chinese economy unexpectedly fell by more than expected earlier today triggering concern about the health of the global economy.  A slowdown in China would likely have a multiplier effect that would drag other economies down with it.  Yields on Spanish debt continue to rise as investors grow concerned about the ability of the Spanish government to meet its obligations in light of an economic slowdown.

Late last week mortgage rates increased by about .25% across the board after the Federal Reserve excluded any mention of further quantitative easing from the monetary policy statement.  Whenever we see acute moves in the financial markets it’s not uncommon for the trend to retract in the immediate term.  However, for mortgage rates to dip back down to all-time low levels we’d need to see the 10-year Treasury yield drop back below the important technical level of 2.10% which I do not see as a likely occurrence.

Therefore, I am going to recommend a locking position anytime we see this momentary improvements in pricing.

Current Outlook: locking bias

Mortgage Rate Update March 21, 2012

Mortgage rates are unchanged today.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Narayana Kocherlakota commented in a speech yesterday that he believes no new monetary stimulusis needed for the US economy to maintain gradual growth and that he foresees the unemployment rate falling to the high-7% range by the end of the year.

MINNEAPOLIS FED PRESIDENT NARAYANA KOCHERLAKOTA BELIEVES UNEMPLOYMENT WILL DROP BELOW 8% BY THE END OF THE YEAR

Good news for the economy is often bad news for mortgage rates.

According to the National Association of Realtors sales of existing homes declined modestly last month but still reached the highest level for February in 5 years.  On a year-over-year basis sales of existing homes her up almost 9%.  Furthermore, the median home price rose slightly on a year-over-year basis.  The report is an encouraging sign that the housing sector is indeed on the mend.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates improve modestly from current levels but it will only be temporary.  Mortgage rates are likely to remain at these levels or higher unless fears over the European debt crisis flare up again or the Fed makes a surprise announcement regarding another round of quantitative easing.

Current Outlook: neutral