Rate Update June 29, 2010

Mortgage rates are basically unchanged this morning.

The “flight-to-quality” trade which has been responsible for lower rates over the past few weeks got some more juice today on a busy economic schedule.  In fact, the 10-year treasury yield broke below 3.00% for the first time since early 2009.

The Conference Board, which provides businesses with research, lowered their economic projections for China.  This created more fear about the economic recovery in a market that is already feeling  jittery.

In addition, the Conference Board also reported this morning that consumer confidence fell by more than in expected in June.  Bad news for the economy is often good news for mortgage rates.

S & P released its Case-Shiller Home price Index report for April earlier today.  The report showed home price appreciation both on a month-to-month and year-over-year basis.  However, the markets have shrugged off the news given that the first-time homebuyer credit expired in April.

Pricing on mortgage rates have improved on 14 of the last 18 trading days.  I always get skeptical when we have runs like this.  The technical outlook for rates is not good but clearly the emotion in the marketplace is directing rates for now.

Current outlook: neutral