Rate Update August 13, 2009

Rates are unchanged from yesterday following a see-saw day in the bond market.

As you’ve probably heard the Fed left short-term interest rates unchanged yesterday.  They also focused their post-meeting statement on the need to stimulate the economy; a sign that inflation is still not a huge concern for them (interest rate friendly).

This morning we had two economic reports released and both were worse than expected.  Retail sales in July contracted by .1%.  Expectations had been for a .7% expansion.  Furthermore, weekly jobless claims were reported higher than expected.  Both reports are weighing on the stock market which has helped mortgage rates recover ground from yesterday.

Still weighing over the markets is the heavy supply of US treasury sales.  The treasury is scheduled to sell $15 billion in 30-year bonds later this morning.  We’ll continue to monitor foreign demand as an indicator for mortgage rates (foreign demand=strong then rates likely to move lower & vice-versa).

Current outlook: neutral