Home loan rates move higher along with oil prices

Sometimes our best ideas are formed when we least expect it. This is true for the guitarist Slash who during a band warm up played a string skipping riff that he initially disdained.

However, the rest of the band asked him to play it again and later the riff formed the foundation of “Sweet Child of Mine” which entered the Billboard top 40 on this day in 1988. The hit would eventually climb all the way to #1 and ultimately help catapult Guns N’ Roses to become one of the most famous rock bands of all time.

Home Loan Rates
Mortgage rates are also climbing higher. Last week I warned that we may be in store for a “break-out” following three weeks in which home loan rates remained flat.

Unfortunately, rates decided to break higher instead of lower.

Oil prices
You may have noticed that US consumers are paying more at the pump. Oil prices have risen by ~20% in 2018. Prices spiked this morning after President Trump sent a threatening tweet directed at the president of Iran.

Nearly 40% of the global oil market flows through Iran so if there were a disruption it would certainly move prices higher. Higher prices for oil would be inflationary which would not be good for home loan rates.

Existing Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors released its monthly existing home sales report today. It showed that the number of sales declined modestly in June.

The median home price for the US reached an all-time high at $276,900.

The most interesting part of the report was that the total inventory of homes increased for the first time since June of 2015. Might this be a signal that a more balanced market is near?

The Week Ahead
This week’s economic calendar is relatively light. We’ll get new home sales on Wednesday and Q2 gross domestic product on Friday.

Momentum is not on our side. I recommend locking.

Current Outlook: locking.