As mortgage rates and other interest rates begin to creep higher I thought I would revisit a post I did back in December. In this post I blogged about a survey the WSJ did with primary dealers in the treasury market to get a sense for where they thought interest rates were headed. Here is the graphic from that piece:
So how are these predictions doing? Not bad, currently the 2-yr note is yielding 1.16% and the 10-yr note is at 3.98%. According to the consensus we are about half way to where we’ll end the year. Of course mortgage rates are not directly tied to treasury yields but over time mortgage rates are shown to be correlated to the 10-yr treasury note.