Mortgage Rate Update November 2, 2015

Mortgage rates are more or less unchanged from last Thursday’s ‘rate update’.  As I wrote then mortgage rates have risen by ~.125% since the Fed’s monetary policy statement delivered on Wednesday of last week.  Investors now assign a 50% chance that the Fed will increase short-term interest rates at the December meeting.

It’s hard to believe it’s November 2nd!  A new month means a new all-important jobs report which is slated for Friday.  Analysts will be watching this one closely as it may influence whether or not the Fed acts to hike rates in December.  I will lay out my strategy headed into this report in Thursday’s ‘rate update’.

From now until then there is a scattering of other economic data points but I expect mortgage rates to remain relatively flat until the end of the week.

From a technical perspective interest rates appear vulnerable.  The US 10-year treasury yield is trading right at an important technical level.  If yields close above this level it would be a bad sign for mortgage rates and if they can retreat below it would be a positive sign.

Current Outlook: neutral