Mortgage Rate Update November 21, 2016

Mortgage rates look as though they may stabilize this week and possibly even reverse lower.

Since the election the yield on the US 10-year treasury note, which mortgage rates tend to track, has had its steepest two-week climb in over 15 years!  Meanwhile, the US stock market has reached all-time highs.

This week’s economic calendar is compact given the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday.  Tomorrow we’ll see the latest reading on existing home sales, on Wednesday we’ll get durable goods, new home sales, and minutes from the last Fed meeting.

Speaking of the Fed, earlier today Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer all but told the markets that they intend on hiking rates at their next monetary policy meeting.  According to CME Group there is currently a 95% chance they will do so.  A Fed rate hike could actually help mortgage rates at this point.

From a technical perspective the steep increase in mortgage rates looks like it may have gone too far.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates improve .125% later this week or early next.  We will float.

Current Outlook: floating