Rate Update for March 3, 2008

You Tube link to see rate update video: no video today

Mortgage Bonds are trading higher today after a weaker than expected initial jobless claims report provided a slight boost. This boost has kept bonds trading above the important 50 day moving average. The initial jobless claims were reported at a worrisome 407,000, reaching their lowest level since September of 2005. As with bond charts, analysts also look at moving averages in the jobless claim numbers which were 374,500 on a four week moving average…which is worse than the levels seen in the last two recessions.

As we all know from past job reports (reported the first Friday of every month), the numbers can be revised much higher or lower in months to come. For instance, whispers of a report tomorrow showing a loss of 50,000 jobs is in great contrast with the ADP report that was issued yesterday showing a positive growth of 40,000 jobs. With a 90,000 swing between economists and ADP, we will hold tight and see what the numbers are reported at tomorrow.

Current Outlook: neutral, watching tomorrow’s Job’s Report along with the 50 –day moving average