Rate Update March 30, 2010

Mortgage rates are modestly higher this morning.

Mortgage-backed bonds (MBS’s) are currently trading lower on better than expected consumer confidence numbers and positioning ahead of the jobs report.

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence came in ahead of expectations.  Stocks initially were trading higher on this news which is partially why mortgage rates are worse.

As I outlined in yesterday’s ‘rate update’ on Friday the monthly jobs report is scheduled for release.  Given that the financial markets will be closed for Good Friday I expect tomorrow’s ADP payroll report to carry more weight than usual.  ADP releases their version of the jobs report the Wednesday preceding the government’s report and typically does not draw the same level of attention.  That may change tomorrow.

Most analysts believe the jobs report will show robust growth because the US Government has begun hiring workers for the census.  Should this be the case expect mortgage rates to be pressured higher.

Current outlook: locking bias