Mortgage Rate Update October 4, 2012

Mortgage rates have been mostly flat this week.

Mortgage rates remain at all-time low levels.  Which direction will they go next?  Tomorrow’s all-important jobs report influence the market for mortgage rates.  Currently, analysts are expecting 110,000-130,000 new jobsto be reported.


Ceteris paribus (a tribute to all you economic nerds out there), we would expect a number north of that range to push rates higher and vice versa.

However, all things are NOT equal right now (in other words we’re in an environment that is not ‘ceteris paribus’).  As I wrote in Monday’s ‘rate update’ the Fed’s QE3 program is overshadowing the economic reports that traditionally influence mortgage rates.

Speaking of the Fed, the minutes from their last monetary policy meeting, where QE3 was discussed, are being released this afternoon.  It will be interesting to note how broad the support for QE3 was amongst voting members of the Fed’s open market committee.

The jobs report is always a risky event to float into but I still believe loan applicants can get away with it.

Current Outlook: floating bias