Mortgage Rate Update July 29, 2013

For the most part mortgage rates are unchanged from the latter half of last week.  This week the economic calendar is jam packed of significant economic data so we could see some volatility.

Already this morning the National Association of Realtors released its monthly reading on pending home sales.  The figure came in below expectations but considering the fact that this is the first reading following the sharp increase in mortgage rates an overall increase of 10.9% from a year earlier is pretty good.

On Tuesday the Commerce Department will release its latest reading on GDP growth.  This report also include significant inflation measurements which can impact interest rates.

On Wednesday the Fed will deliver its latest monetary policy statement.

WHETHER THE FED IS EXPLICIT OR "RESERVED" IN THEIR STATEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS WITH RATES THIS WEEK.
WHETHER THE FED IS EXPLICIT OR “RESERVED” IN THEIR STATEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS WITH RATES THIS WEEK.

 This is the last official monetary policy meeting before their September 18th statement, which many analysts believe will be when the Fed will explicitly announces plans to unwind quantitative easing (QE).  If the Fed hints at any sort of tapering on Wednesday it would likely pressure rates higher.

And if this wasn’t enough for one week we get the all-important jobs report this Friday.  Let’s not lose perspective on the fact that mortgage rates are currently .125%-.375% below the recent highs which were created earlier in July.  I still believe rates will tick up over the remainder of the year so I will maintain a locking bias.

Current Outlook: locking bias